Observations on Russia in 2020 – A Challenging Year

Three decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union, many Russian leaders have still not come to terms with the loss of their empire and they have spent the past thirty years fighting to reverse the verdict of history. Russia had a bad year in 2020, and the future doesn’t look much better for the country under Putin’s rule.

• In 2020, Putin spent much of his time hidden away from the public as Russia struggled while one of the world’s most severe coronavirus outbreaks ravaged the country helping to cripple their economy.
• In Central Asia, unrest in Kyrgyzstan led to the collapse of a pro-Russian government. This sparked fears of a further decline in Kremlin influence in a region where Moscow already finds itself competing against the growing presence of China.
• In Moldova, the pro-Russian incumbent was handily defeated by a pro-Western candidate in the country’s presidential election. Moldova’s new president-elect Maia Sandu is an English-speaking, Harvard-educated economist. She seeks to pursue membership in the European Union and has called on Russia to withdraw its occupation forces from the Moldovan region of Transnistria.
• The most stunning blow to Russian interests came in the South Caucasus region, where Turkish backing allowed Azerbaijan to wage a victorious short war against Kremlin ally Armenia. Putin was eventually able to broker a peace agreement, but this face-saving gesture could not disguise that Moscow had been forced to accept the presence of a rival power in a region where Russia had previously reigned supreme for over a century.
• Developments in neighboring Belarus struck even closer to home. The ongoing pro-democracy protest movement and demands of its supporters are anathema to Moscow. A democratic Belarus would inevitably turn towards the West.
• Ukraine Alert - Russia’s inability to sell itself as an attractive alternative to the West has been most immediately apparent in Ukraine where it continues to be bogged down in military efforts to retake Ukraine territory that are costly and not going anywhere.
• Russia’s reliance on force has succeeded in establishing pro-Kremlin enclaves in some neighboring countries, but it has also alienated tens of millions of former post-Soviet sympathizers who resent Moscow’s interference. Shifting strategies and building mutually beneficial partnerships is not something that comes naturally to the Kremlin.
• In the Middle East, Russia has found itself slowly drawn into a costly effort to support the failing Syrian regime while angering Arabs and selected terrorist groups in the region.
• Finally, Putin continues to pursue the elimination of political opponents, like the failed poisoning attempt on Alexei Navalny’s life.

Putin’s not so subtle attacks on the West – spreading misinformation, launching cyberattacks on governments, interfering in elections, undermining democratic institutions – will result in long-term costly retaliation by those same Western nation.   See Atlantic Council

 

 

And then came Putin's foolhardy invasion and war on Ukraine in 2022.