Overview of the 2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community

The following is a brief overview of the recently released report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) entitled “2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community”. After reading the overview, you might want to download a copy of the report so you can study it more indepth.

Excerpts from the Foreward section of the report:

In the coming year, the United States (US) and its allies will face a diverse array of threats that are playing out amidst the global disruption resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and against the backdrop of great power competition, the disruptive effects of ecological degradation and a changing climate, an increasing number of empowered non-state actors, and rapidly evolving technology.

The complexity of the threats, their intersections, and the potential for cascading events in an increasingly interconnected and mobile world create new challenges for the intelligence community (IC). Ecological and climate changes, for example, are connected to public health risks, humanitarian concerns, social and political instability, and geopolitical rivalry. The ‘2021 Annual Threat Assessment’ highlights some of those connections as it provides the IC’s baseline assessments of the most pressing threats to US national interests, while emphasizing the United States’ key adversaries and competitors.

It is not an exhaustive assessment of all global challenges and notably excludes assessments of US adversaries’ vulnerabilities.

• China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the United States in multiple arenas—especially economically, militarily, and technologically — and is pushing to change global norms.

• Russia is pushing back against Washington where it can globally — employing techniques up to and including the use of force.

• Iran will remain a regional menace with broader malign influence activities, and

• North Korea will be a disruptive player on the regional and world stages.

Major adversaries and competitors are enhancing and exercising their military, cyber, and other capabilities, raising the risks to US and allied forces, weakening our conventional deterrence, and worsening the longstanding threat from weapons of mass destruction.

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to strain governments and societies, fueling humanitarian and economic crises, political unrest, and geopolitical competition as countries, such as China and Russia, seek advantage through such avenues as “vaccine diplomacy.” No country has been completely spared, and even when a vaccine is widely distributed globally, the economic and political aftershocks will be felt for years. Countries with high debts or that depend on oil exports, tourism, or remittances face particularly challenging recoveries, while others will turn inward or be distracted by other challenges.

Ecological degradation and a changing climate will continue to fuel disease outbreaks, threaten food and water security, and exacerbate political instability and humanitarian crises. Although much of the effect of a changing climate on US security will play out indirectly in a broader political and economic context, warmer weather can generate direct, immediate impacts—for example, through more intense storms, flooding, and permafrost melting.

This year we will see increasing potential for surges in migration to the US by Central American populations, which are reeling from the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic and extreme weather, including multiple hurricanes in 2020 and several years of recurring droughts and storms — as well as the illicit drug trade and criminal gangs.

The scourge of illicit drugs and transnational organized crime will continue to take its toll on American lives, prosperity, and safety. Major narcotics trafficking groups have adapted to the pandemic’s challenges to maintain their deadly trade, as have other transnational criminal organizations.

Emerging and disruptive technologies, as well as the proliferation and permeation of technology in all aspects of our lives, pose unique challenges. For example, cyber capabilities are demonstrably intertwined with very real threats to our infrastructure and to the foreign malign influence threats against our democracy. ISIS, al-Qa‘ida, and Iran and its militant allies continue to plot terrorist attacks against US persons and interests overseas and in the US. Despite leadership losses, terrorist groups have shown great resiliency and are taking advantage of ungoverned areas in the world to rebuild.

Regional conflicts continue to fuel humanitarian crises, undermine stability, and threaten US persons and interests abroad. Some have direct implications for US security. For example, the fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria has direct bearing on US military forces. Tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan remain a concern for the world. Also, the iterative violence between Israel and Iran, the activity of foreign powers in Libya, and conflicts in other areas—including Africa, Asia, and the Middle East—have the potential to escalate or spread.

* For more detail, download and read the complete 2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community