According to a recent CNBC Article, Chief Executive Officers (CEO) of companies from sectors including healthcare, restaurants, packaged food, manufacturing, retail, logistics and chip sector tell CNBC that any hope of a “return to normal” in 2022 is questionable and volatility will remain a primary business challenge. Contrast that with the latest IPSOS survey that finds 71% of Americans expect 2022 to be a better year than 2021.
As we near the end of 2021, we find ourselves dealing with a number of major uncertainties.
- Emerging COVID-19 variants could jeopardize our return to normalcy.
- Imminent interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could create issues in the coming year.
- The global supply chain continues to be strained by a variety of unforeseen events and rising costs.
- Geopolitical tensions in regions around the world continue to flare up causing jitters in the global markets.
Clearly, 2022 is going to be full of surprises. Cutting through the uncertainty, the following is our best shot at providing some high level predictions for 2022 based on a review of a wide range of recent articles and studies.
High Level Predictions for 2022
US Government spending as a share of GDP is significantly falling in 2022, after two years of hefty increases due to pandemic-related emergency support measures.
Governments will continue to be heavily focused on avoiding stress on their healthcare systems and encouraging citizens to get vaccinated.
Expect telehealth to become more commonplace in the post-pandemic world.
Pandemic vs. Endemic Definitions Pandemic - A pandemic is when a particular new infectious disease is spreading to the population across a large region, multiple continents, or worldwide. Endemic - An infectious disease is said to be
endemic if it has become native to the population in a particular
country or region.
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Increases in oil and natural gas production by OPEC+ countries and the US will help alleviate inflation pressures from rising energy prices.
The ongoing transition from hydrocarbons to renewable energy will steadily pick up speed.
Electric vehicles (EV) are poised for a big year in 2022 as the transition away from gas-powered vehicles accelerates.
The adoption of remote online schooling alternatives has accelerated and is taking hold.
In 2022, businesses will navigate multiple issues facing the global economy, including rising interest rates and tightening credit conditions.
The use of cryptocurrencies and the underlying blockchain technology is impacting many aspects of our evolving world of finance and business.
This next year will bring further adoption of official central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and regulatory guidelines for private cryptocurrencies.
Logistics bottlenecks will be resolved later this year as demand for goods moderates and traffic normalizes.
Supply blockages should be cleared and supply chains functioning more or less normally by 2023.
Core Inflation will subside towards 2% by the end of 2022 as price pressures ease with the gradual dissipation of supply-chain disruptions.
In 2022, growth will shift from final sales by industries towards inventory rebuilding, and from purchases of goods to purchases of services.
Grocery store shelves will increasingly exist online and e-commerce adoption will continue to speed up.
Both Goldman Sachs and Bank of America anticipate GDP will grow approximately 3.8% on a full-year basis in 2022
The red-hot housing markets is likely to begin cooling off in 2022.
New home construction is getting hampered by the rising cost of building materials and a severe shortage of labor.
The space race by nations and major corporations will continue to pick up speed in 2022.
Many companies have seen the productivity gains of remote work and the benefits of scaling down their commercial real estate workplace holdings.
The Great Resignation: Many people are quitting their jobs and reprioritizing how they choose to live their lives forcing companies to revise how they view their workforce and the traditional work environment.
To save money on labor, and to future-proof themselves against human-worker issues to come, 2022 will see businesses continue to explore the use of robot technologies.
* See TED Talk video for leaders on the future of 21st Century Working Environments.
The global economy made the initial transition from recovery to expansion in 2021 amid the ongoing turbulence from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the uneven economic expansion generated supply/demand imbalances, leading to temporary global supply chain disruptions and rising inflation.
Growth of global economies will likely slow in 2022 as we continue to deal with the pandemic and its many related issues.
The US economy will continue to sustain the recovery of many other nations economies.
High inflation and further progress in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic impacts will encourage most central banks to move toward tighter monetary policy in 2022.
Nations with advanced economies that are more politically willing to enact new pandemic lockdowns could see larger negative economic impacts.
Alert: China will be focused on averting a national housing market crash and the related financial crisis over the coming year(s).
[We did not anticipate the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022]
Read some of the many articles and studies for yourself that offer predictions about 2022. You might also want to visit the Future of America: 2020-2050 web site.
Finally, it is with great hope that we will see the return to greater civility across American society in 2022.
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