Sapiens: A Brief Book Review

Just read a great book well worth buying. “Sapiens” provides a new, groundbreaking narrative of humanity’s creation and evolution that explores the ways in which biology, technology, and history have defined us, civilization, and our understanding of what it means to be “human.” See Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind by Yuval Noah Harari

Excellent chapters on the evolution and importance of Money, Capitalism, Religion, and Imperialism - culminating in the end of Homo Sapiens and alternative futures. The key question he raises, “What do we want to become.” See related Summerton Blog on “Redefining Our Purpose as Civilization Keeps Evolving.”

 

 

Laws Governing Outer Space and Interplanetary Activities in Our Solar System

For those of you interested in Outer Space - This article provides a brief overview of the current laws and regulations developed to date related to Outer Space, Inter-Planetary Exploration and Colonization, Mining Asteroids, Policing and Enforcement, Commercialization, Ownership and much more. As we gear up to become an Interplanetary species, we need to do a lot more thinking about these and the many other complex issues and challenges that may emerge over the coming century. Are you ready for  some of your grandchildren to be working in space?

Background & Definitions

The origins of ‘space law’ date all the way back to 1919, with international law recognizing each country's sovereignty over the airspace directly above their territory, later reinforced at the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation in 1944. The onset of domestic space programs during the Cold War propelled the official creation of initial international space policy by the International Council of Scientific Unions.

The Soviet Union's 1957 launch of the world's first artificial satellite, Sputnik 1, directly spurred the US Congress to pass the Space Act, creating the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Because space exploration required crossing transnational boundaries, it was during this era where space law became a field independent from traditional aerospace law.

Since the Cold War, the “Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies”, commonly referred to as the "Outer Space Treaty", has served as the constitutional legal framework and provided a set of principles and procedures constituting current space law. Further, the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS), along with its various subcommittees, are responsible for debating issues of international space law and policy. The UN Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) serves as the secretariat of the Committee and is promoting the policy of “Access to Space for All”.‎

Space law - The body of law governing space-related activities, encompassing both international and domestic agreements, rules, and principles. Key fields of law and domains of interest that need to be included within a comprehensive body of space law over the coming century include: commercial law, space colonization and governance, property and ownership laws, environmental law, mining, health care issues, liability and insurance, transportation, housing, labor laws, militarization and weapons in space, criminal law and law enforcement, ethics and much more. - See Wikipedia on Space Law

Key international treaties on Outer Space that have been negotiated and passed by COPUOS include:

• The 1963 “Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapon Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space, and Under Water”, called the "Partial Test Ban Treaty".
• The 1967 "Outer Space Treaty", the most widely adopted treaty agreed to by 104 nations.
• The 1968 “Agreement on the Rescue of Astronauts, the Return of Astronauts and the Return of Objects Launched into Outer Space”, referred to as the "Rescue Agreement".
• The 1972 “Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects”, commonly referred to as the "Liability Convention".
• The 1975 “Convention on Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space”, called the "Registration Convention".
• The 1979 “Agreement Governing the Activities of States on the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies”, referred to as the "Moon Treaty".
  

These key treaties and agreements of international space law cover "non-appropriation of outer space by any one country, arms control, the freedom of exploration, liability for damage caused by space objects, the safety and rescue of spacecraft and astronauts, the prevention of harmful interference with space activities and the environment, the notification and registration of space activities, scientific investigation and the exploitation of natural resources in outer space and the settlement of disputes.”

In addition to the key treaties and agreements on international space law, the UN General Assembly has also adopted the following declarations and legal principles that are described in more detail at Wikipedia on Space Law. They include:

• The Declaration of Legal Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Uses of Outer Space (1963)
• Agreement Governing the Activities of States on the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies (1979)
• The Principles Governing the Use by States of Artificial Earth Satellites for International Direct Television Broadcasting (1982)
• The Principles Relating to Remote Sensing of the Earth from Outer Space (1986)
• The Principles Relevant to the Use of Nuclear Power Sources in Outer Space (1992)
• The Declaration on International Cooperation in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space for the Benefit and in the Interest of All States, Taking into Particular Account the Needs of Developing Countries (1996)

We are now on the threshold of moving from a Type 0 Civilization to a Type I Interplanetary Civilization. (See http://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale) Type 0 civilization extracts its energy, information, raw-materials from crude organic-based sources (i.e. food/wood/fossil fuel/books/oral tradition); pressures via natural disaster, natural selection, and societal collapse creates extreme risk of extinction; it's capable of orbital spaceflight; societies that fail to improve social, environmental and medical understanding concurrently with other advancements, frequently accelerated their own extinction. Type I civilization extracts its energy, information, and raw-materials from fusion power, hydrogen, and other "high-density" renewable-resources; is capable of interplanetary spaceflight, interplanetary communication, megascale engineering, and interplanetary colonization, medical and technological singularity, planetary engineering, world government and trade, and stellar system-scale influence; but are still vulnerable to possible extinction.

Findings & Selected Articles

Some of the many other recent articles on Space Laws and Treaties that you might want to explore further include:

• Bring Space Law into the 21st Century
  
• What you need to know about the Laws of Space
• Who Owns the Moon? Law & Outer Space Treaties
• The Entrepreneur's Guide to Space Law
• The Game Has Changed: Why We Need New Rules for Space Exploration

• NASA needs to update its rules on how to keep the Solar System clean

• International treaty signed 50 years ago became the Backbone for Space Law

• As Space Becomes a Busy Place, NASA Bolsters Its Planet Contamination Police

• We urgently need a legal framework for Space Colonisation and Governance

• President Obama signs U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act

• Planetary protection and Space Law - Space Legal Issues

• Outer Space Treaties Didn't Anticipate the Privatization of Space Travel

• US to support International effort to set Rules of Behavior in Space

Conclusions & Next Steps

The following is a brief summary of some key conclusions, legal issues, and next steps with regards to our civilization’s move into Outer Space and and towards Interplanetary Exploration and Colonization.

• We are now on the threshold of moving from a Type 0: Earth-bound Civilization to a Type I: Interplanetary Civilization. (See http://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale)
• In a National Geographic article, Elon Musk estimates that a million people could be living and working on Mars and in Outer Space by 2060. Do a quick Internet search on Jobs in Outer Space, you may be surprised by what you find.
• A more comprehensive body of space law will be needed over the coming century addressing: commercial law, space colonization & governance, property & ownership laws, liability & insurance, militarization & weapons in space, criminal law & law enforcement, environmental issues, mining, health care, housing, labor laws, transportation issues, ethics and so much more.

If you thought the rate of change was going to level off, forget it. I’ve already been preparing my grandkids for the prospect of working in the Space Industry – if not actually working off planet in the coming century. Think about it.

Selected Links

European Space Agency International Institute of Space Law National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) National Space Society (NSS) Space Law: SpaceLegalIssues.com UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) UN Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) US Space Command and US Space Force

Preliminary High Level Predictions about Life in the Year 2100

I have previously written a series of articles about Technology Advancements and Life in 2050. In this article a first attempt is made to project even further into time and make predictions about life by the end of the century – Year 2100. By then we will have completed the transition from a Type 0 to a Type 1 Civilization. (Revisiting this article again during the coronavirus pandemic of 2020, the predictions seem to be right on target.)

A Type 0 civilization extracts its energy, information, raw-materials from crude organic-based sources, e.g. food/wood/fossil fuel/books/oral traditions; pressures via natural disaster, natural selection, and societal collapse creates extreme risk of extinction; it's capable of orbital spaceflight; societies that fail to improve social, environmental and medical understanding concurrently with other advancements, frequently accelerated their own extinction. A Type I civilization extracts its energy, information, and raw-materials from fusion power, hydrogen, and other "high-density" renewable-resources; is capable of interplanetary spaceflight, interplanetary communication, megascale engineering, and interplanetary colonization, medical and technological singularity, planetary engineering, world government and trade, and stellar system-scale influence; but are still vulnerable to possible extinction. A Type II civilization extracts fusion energy, information, and raw-materials from multiple solar systems; it is capable of evolutionary intervention, interstellar travel, interstellar communication, stellar engineering, and star cluster-scale influence; the resulting proliferation and diversification would theoretically negate the probability of extinction. A Type III civilization extracts fusion energy, information, and raw-materials from all possible star-clusters; it's capable of intergalactic travel via wormholes and intergalactic communication, galactic engineering and galaxy-scale influence. A Type IV civilization extracts energy, information, and raw-materials from all possible galaxies; it's effectively immortal and omnipotent with universal-scale influence, possessing the ability of theoretical time travel and instantaneous matter-energy transformation and teleportation, moving entire asteroid belts and stars, creating alternate timelines and more. - See http://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale

Predictions for the Year 2100

The following are a preliminary set of high level predictions of life in the Year 2100:

Global Population

It is predicted that the global population will be close to 12 billion by 2100, barring any unforseen major pandemic or major extinction event. Over 80% of the world’s population will live in urbanized areas where ‘Smart Cities’ will house the bulk of the world's population. Networks of metropolitan regions linked by new forms of government, transportation, communication, and economic systems. By 2100, governments around the world will be using various forms of population control, e.g. preventive medical solutions, legally approved coercion, re-engineering social norms. Technology will allow us to overcome language barriers allowing people to communicate anyone in the world – and to communicate telepathically. Read the Future of Human Population

Agriculture

Demand for Food and Water resources will grow substantially as the global population increases substantially by the end of this century. High-tech solutions, precision farming systems, use of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO), expansion of urban farming techniques… will all be needed to boost yields several times over to meet the growing global demand. Expect to see widespread use of drones, robots, artificial intelligance (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), autonomous self-driving farming vehicles, global weather control, and many other new technologies designed to meet the needs of the large scale corporate farms of the future. Today’s scarce fresh water resources will be vastly expanded by low-cost desalinization technologies that will convert sea water into potable water. Read Future of Food and Agricultral Demand in 2050

Business & Manufacturing

Global standards will be in place for all sectors of the economy, e.g. technology, medicine, manufacturing, transportation, telecommunications. Use of Smart 3D Printers, Robots, Artificial Intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), Advanced Manufacturing Techniques... will dramatically transform manufacturing by the end of the century. Many new and almost unimaginable ‘smart’ materials and technologies for building housing, making clothing, manufacturing cars... will be developed and put into use. Much of the workforce will use augmented and virtual reality technologies to perform their work remotely in most industries, e.g. education, healthcare, research, manufacturing, retail, transportation... both on Earth and off-planet.  Read Future of Retail & Manufacturing and Future of Work

Finance

A new global ‘digital’ currency and a more secure monetary system will have emerged and taken hold by the end of the century. Use of coins and paper money will be a distant memory. New and continuously evolving global financial systems will draw heavily upon the use of new technologies, e.g. Blockchain, ‘Bitcoins’, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Crowdfunding, Implantables, Sensors, Smart ‘Wallets’... Tens of thousands of bank branch offices will close and most accounting jobs will disappear. Collaboration, 'Open' Solutions, and Continuous Innovation will remain key management strategies for success throughout the 21st century. Read Future of the Economy and Banking in 2050

Education

Education will be free for everyone and human illiteracy will have been eliminated around the world. Access to free, continuous life-long learning opportunities will be available for all as the rate of change continues to accelerate. humans to adapt to the global economy. Many new technologies like implantable computer-brain interface technology, artificial intelligence (AI), 5G Internet, virtual and augmented reality systems, free and ‘open access’ to research and educational materials… will all play a role in revolutionizing the education system, and eliminating the cost of acquiring knowledge and becoming more productive in the future. Read Future of Education and Education 4.0

Energy

The official end of the 'Oil Age' and use of fossil fuels on Earth will have occurred back in 2050. A range of renewable energy sources will provide 100% of the world’s energy, e.g. wind, solar, hydro, fuel cell, nuclear fusion – and maybe still a little oil and natural gas. Continent-wide ‘smart supergrids' will be used to help manage the world's energy needs. Both the high cost and scarcity of energy on Earth will be a thing of the past. Roofs, windows, painted surfaces, clothes… will all be used to collect energy for home and office devices, with excess unused energy being fed into the country’s smart supergrid. Wireless energy transmission systems will be in common use. Read Future of Energy and Energy & Environment in 2050

Environment

Average global temperatures will have risen by more than 5°F by 2100. Ongoing climate change will make storms far more intense around the world, e.g. hurricanes, tornados, cyclones, monsoons. Sea levels across the globe will rise by a little over 3 feet, flooding many coastal areas around the world. Major extinctions of many animals and plant life will have occurred. For example, deep ocean mining operations around the world will become widespread further disrupting sea life. Nearly half of the rain forests and jungles in the world today will have vanished, but global efforts to halt de-forestation, clean up the seas, restore coral reefs… will have finally taken hold. Many displaced people will have migrated to Antartica as the snow cap melted and it became habitable.  Read Future of Climate Change and Energy & Environment in 2050

Health

The rise of 'Regenerative Medicine', Genetic Engineering, Stem Cell Research, and the development of 'Human Augmentation' technologies will dramatically alter people's health for the better over this next century. New technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Robotics, Internet of Things (IoT), and the Invisible User Interface (IUI) will all be incorporated into Health 4.0 systems of the future. Use of DNA biorepositories and genomic information systems will further transform healthcare, help lower costs, combat diseases, reduce child mortality, and extend human lifespans to well over 100 years. Look to see the emergence of a new health industry focused on BioEngineering human organs and new lifeforms and dealing with recurring global pandemics. Read Future of Health and Searching for Godot: Health 4.0

Technology

There will be more than a 1,000-fold increase in computer processing power, data collection and storage, information analysis and dissemination... By the year 2100, there will be widespread use of robots, drones, virtual reality, smart appliances, 5G Internet, artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), nano-bots, brain-computer interfaces (BCI), unmanned autonomous vehicles (UAV), 3-D printers, Quantum Computers, Invisible User Interface (IUI), teleportation, and many other technologies in every industries, e.g. agriculture, manufacturing, military, government, transportation… Wearable and implantable technologies, not to mention teleportation and telepathy systems, will also be widely used in all facets of daily life,, e.g. healthcare, education, security, ... All will be needed to solve many of the challenges brought about by a growing world population, rapid urbanization, climate change, pandemics...  Read Future of Computers and Future of the Internet

Transportation

Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell powered vehicles will have long since replaced fossil fuel powered vehicles. Hi-tech unmanned autonompus vehicles (UAV) will be the dominant form of transportation with very few people owning their own cars. High speed Maglev trains and Hyperloop systems will be completed between major cities across the U.S. and around the world. These will all have a dramatic impact on the trucking and airplane industries as we currently know them. Finally, the commercial space transportation industry will continue to grow and evolve as mankind begins to colonize outer space.  Read Future of Transportation

Government & Society

The vast majority of countries will have adopted some form of democratic government. New alliances and partnerships between countries will lead to reinventing regional and global governance systems. Many non-state actors will take the lead from governments in confronting major global challenges, e.g. climate, pollution, healthcare… Building leadership in government and business that can be 'trusted', that is not corrupt, is citizen-centered, and not built on greed and the quest for money and power... will continue to be a major challenge for society to achieve.

By the end of the 21^st century, real time language translation technology will greatly improve global communications between individuals and organizations around the world. There will be continued progress towards the eradication illiteracy and global poverty levels. Women will have assumed a significantly growing role in public and private sector organizations across the world. Racial, religious, and gender discrimination and intolerance will have also been largely eradicated in the US and many other parts of the world. Finally, each individual will receive some guaranteed form of Universal Basic Income (UBI) from government which will meet the minimum requirements to sustain their lives, especially when changing jobs or looking for new work. Read Future of Government, Government & Society by 2050, Future of Human Evolution

Military & Warfare

It will be highly unlikely that war will go extinct, though its frequency, nature, and scope will continue to change and adapt to the future we will inhabit. Many wars will be fought in the ‘virtual world’. It is expected that rapid changes and shifts in ‘power’ may ultimately lead to more smaller intra-state and inter-state conflicts around the globe.

There will be widespread use of new technologies in weapon systems, e.g. Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles (UAV), artificial intelligence (AI), laser weapons, drones, robots, human augmentation technology, teleportation, telepathy... Also, expect to see the use of military weapons and warfare spreading to outer space as the quest to colonize the moon and other planets across our solar system becomes a reality. See Top Secret Weapons – DARPA Hard, Forecasting Change in Military Technology 2020-2040

Space Travel & Colonization

Spaceflight technology will have taken a major leap forward allowing for Inter-Planetary travel. Millions of humans will make up the first wave of immigrants populating permanent colonies on other planets and moons in our Solar System. Large scale geoengineering construction in support of these steadily growing colonies will have begun. Public and private sector organizations will be aggressively moving forward to further explore and exploit resources on nearby planets, moons, and asteroids in outer-space well into the 22^nd century. Plans for the first unmanned journeys to potentially habitable planets in the nearest solar systems of our Galaxy will be initiated. See Future of Space Exploration - Video

Conclusion

We are in the midst of the transition from the ‘Industrial Age’ of the 20^th century into the ‘Information Age’ of the 21^st century. We are also in the midst of the transition from a Type 0 Civilization into a Type 1 Civilization. It’s an amazing time to be living and the world is in some turmoil as it struggles to deal with these momentous transitions. To help people deal with the rapid pace of change all around the, this article attempts to paint a preliminary picture of the future to help make some sense of the seeming chaotic times we are living through. I hope you find this article informative and brings some clarity about the rapidly changing world you, your children, and your grandchildren are living in.

Links to Selected Resources & Reports

2100 Technology Forecasts & Reports by Quantumrun America’s Future: 2020-2050 American Infrastructure: 2050 COSI Report: Our Changing World by 2050 Future Work Skills & Challenges in 21st Century Life in 2050: A Pew Research Report National Intelligence Council (NIC): Global Trends for the Future Redefining Our Purpose as Civilization Keeps Changing

Michio Kaku: Quantum Computing and Our Future Rethinking Future Society: Robots, Jobs, and Universal Basic Income  Reports from 2050 on the Environment & Conservation Vision 2050: The New Agenda for Business WWF Report on Use of Renewable Energy by 2050 Future World: Year 2100 Technology – Video on  Future of Space Exploration  How can we become a Type 1 Civilization by 2100

Open Source Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning Solutions

Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), Robots, and the Internet of Things (IoT) will help solve some of the major challenges the world is currently facing in healthcare, transportation, finance, defense, manufacturing. However, there are also some major issues and risks that come with these technologies.

This article attempts to provide a quick, high level overview of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) technologies and their potential to massively impact and disrupt civilization as we know it today. Let’s start with a definition of these two new, related technologies.

• Artificial Intelligence (AI) - Refers to intelligence exhibited by machines. In computer science, the term "artificial intelligence" is applied when a machine mimics cognitive functions generally associated with human minds, such as ‘learning’ and ‘problem solving’.
• Machine Learning (ML) - Machine learning is considered a subset of the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI). It generally refers to ‘smart’ machines that have the ability to learn without being explicitly programmed by humans.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one of the hottest areas of technology research and development. Major corporations like IBM, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon are investing heavily in this area and are buying up startups that have made progress in areas like machine learning and neural networks. - Datamation

‘Open Source’ AI & ML Solutions

The ‘Open Source’ software development methodology and business model is at the heart of the rapid evolution and innovation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) technologies and solutions.

Based on a review of recent articles on software, the following are brief profiles on some of the best of the currently available ‘open source’ AI and ML solutions that we all ought to know a little more about as they begin to flow into industry, e.g. manufacturing, finance, healthcare, defense.

• TensorFlow - An open source software library for ‘machine intelligence’ originally developed by researchers and engineers working on the Google Brain Team within Google's Machine Intelligence R&D organization.

• Accord.NET is a .NET machine learning (ML) framework combined with audio and image processing libraries completely written in C#. It is a complete framework for building usable production-grade applications.
• Amazon Machine Learning (AML) provides visualization tools and wizards that guide you through the process of creating machine learning (ML) models without having to learn complex ML algorithms and technology.

• Apache – Check out some of the more notable Apache AI & ML Projects, such as Mahout, Prediction, Spark MLlib, and Singa.
• Caffe was the brainchild of Yangqing Jia who is now the lead engineer for the Facebook AI platform. Caffe is the first mainstream industry-grade ‘deep learning’ toolkit. The Facebook team is now working on Caffe 2.
• CNTK is Microsoft’s open source ‘deep learning’ cognitive toolkit that is available on GitHub.
• H2O is the world’s leading open source ‘deep learning’ AI platform. H2O is used by over 80,000 data scientists and more than 9,000 organizations around the world.
• OpenAI is a non-profit AI research organization associated with business magnate Elon Musk. The organization strives to ‘freely collaborate’ with other institutions and researchers by making its AI and ML patents and research ‘open’ to the public.
• Shogun is a collaborative free and open source ‘machine learning’ toolbox written in C++.
• Torch is a scientific computing framework offering wide support for machine learning algorithms that puts GPUs first. It is easy to use and efficient, thanks to an easy and fast scripting language called LuaJIT.

* For more information, see the List of Artificial Intelligence Projects on Wikipedia

Key Issues

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) technologies are already being deployed in many industries, e.g. finance, healthcare, manufacturing, transportation, defense. However, some of the key issues that need to be more fully addressed over the coming decade before these systems are widely deployed include:

• Ethics - The moral behavior being programmed by humans into robots and other 'smart' AI systems, e.g. Roboethics.
• Privacy & Security – When AI systems are turned loose to monitor your personal information, who it is being shared with and how they are using it must be better addressed and understood.
• Legal Issues – What is the legal standing of intelligent machines of the future and who is responsible for the actions they may take that could harm you.

The Bank of England has predicted that intelligent machines might take over 80 million US and 15 million British jobs, respectively over the next 10 to 20 years. Think of what this means for you and your livelihood.

If you are concerned and want to learn more about AI and ML technologies and their potential to ‘rock your world’, you might want to check out the following items:

• Rethinking Future Society: Robots, Jobs, and Universal Basic Income 
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Robots will replace CEOs and Workers alike
• YouTube Video: Machine Intelligence Makes Human Morals More Important

Conclusion & Next Steps

As you begin to delve deeper into the key issues raised above, many other questions begin to arise that actually touch on the future of mankind as we know it. Many of these issues and questions have not yet begun to be discussed and addressed by many of our leaders in the public and private sector. That should be of concern to us all. Fortunately, the collaborative ‘open source’ approach being used to develop these new technologies has brought tens of thousands of our best minds to bear on these issues.

WARNING: Stephen Hawking has said the development of full Artificial Intelligence (AI) could spell the end of the human race – and Elton Musk agreed.

Have you begun to think about Artificial Intelligence and ‘Smart’ Machines? How do you think they will impact you and the lives of your children? Share your constructive thoughts with our readers.

Selected Links Artificial Intelligence (AI) News Artificial Intelligence (AI) Hub American Association for Artificial Intelligence Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence Facebook Artificial Intelligence Research (FAIR) Google Search of ‘Machine Learning’