The following is a brief overview of the recently released report by
the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) entitled
“2021
Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community”.
After reading the overview, you might want to download a copy of the
report so you can study it more indepth.
Excerpts from
the Foreward section of the report:
In
the coming year, the United States (US) and its allies will face a
diverse array of threats that are playing out amidst the global
disruption resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and against the
backdrop of great power competition, the disruptive effects of
ecological degradation and a changing climate, an increasing number
of empowered non-state actors, and rapidly evolving technology.
The
complexity of the threats, their intersections, and the potential for
cascading events in an increasingly interconnected and mobile world
create new challenges for the intelligence community (IC). Ecological
and climate changes, for example, are connected to public health
risks, humanitarian concerns, social and political instability, and
geopolitical rivalry. The ‘2021 Annual Threat Assessment’
highlights some of those connections as it provides the IC’s
baseline assessments of the most pressing threats to US national
interests, while emphasizing the United States’ key adversaries and
competitors.
It
is not an exhaustive assessment of all global challenges and notably
excludes assessments of US adversaries’ vulnerabilities.
China
increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the United
States in multiple arenas—especially economically, militarily, and
technologically — and is pushing to change global norms.
Russia
is pushing back against Washington where it can globally —
employing techniques up to and including the use of force.
Iran
will remain a regional menace with broader malign influence
activities, and
North
Korea will be a disruptive player on the regional and world stages.
Major
adversaries and competitors are enhancing and exercising their
military, cyber, and other capabilities, raising the risks to US and
allied forces, weakening our conventional deterrence, and worsening
the longstanding threat from weapons of mass destruction.
The
effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to strain governments
and societies, fueling humanitarian and economic crises, political
unrest, and geopolitical competition as countries, such as China and
Russia, seek advantage through such avenues as “vaccine diplomacy.”
No country has been completely spared, and even when a vaccine is
widely distributed globally, the economic and political aftershocks
will be felt for years. Countries with high debts or that depend on
oil exports, tourism, or remittances face particularly challenging
recoveries, while others will turn inward or be distracted by other
challenges.
Ecological
degradation and a changing climate will continue to fuel disease
outbreaks, threaten food and water security, and exacerbate political
instability and humanitarian crises. Although much of the effect of a
changing climate on US security will play out indirectly in a broader
political and economic context, warmer weather can generate direct,
immediate impacts—for example, through more intense storms,
flooding, and permafrost melting.
This
year we will see increasing potential for surges in migration to the
US by Central American populations, which are reeling from the
economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic and extreme weather,
including multiple hurricanes in 2020 and several years of recurring
droughts and storms — as well as the illicit drug trade and
criminal gangs.
The
scourge of illicit drugs and transnational organized crime will
continue to take its toll on American lives, prosperity, and safety.
Major narcotics trafficking groups have adapted to the pandemic’s
challenges to maintain their deadly trade, as have other
transnational criminal organizations.
Emerging
and disruptive technologies, as well as the proliferation and
permeation of technology in all aspects of our lives, pose unique
challenges. For example, cyber capabilities are demonstrably
intertwined with very real threats to our infrastructure and to the
foreign malign influence threats against our democracy. ISIS,
al-Qa‘ida, and Iran and its militant allies continue to plot
terrorist attacks against US persons and interests overseas and in
the US. Despite leadership losses, terrorist groups have shown great
resiliency and are taking advantage of ungoverned areas in the world
to rebuild.
Regional
conflicts continue to fuel humanitarian crises, undermine stability,
and threaten US persons and interests abroad. Some have direct
implications for US security. For example, the fighting in
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria has direct bearing on US military
forces. Tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan remain a
concern for the world. Also, the iterative violence between Israel
and Iran, the activity of foreign powers in Libya, and conflicts in
other areas—including Africa, Asia, and the Middle East—have the
potential to escalate or spread.
